Caution seems the watchword among the institutional investors surveyed in our latest portfolio poll. The allocation of money between equities, bonds and cash has, on average, remained at the same levels as it did during the third quarter. While Lehman Brothers and Commerz International have increased their overall equity allocations, Daiwa has increased its bond allocation. But given the slowdown in the American economy, it is the reaction of our investors to American equity holdings that is worthy of note.
While three of them, including Lehman Brothers, take a dim view of the prospects for American shares, the other four have either marginally increased their allocations, or have maintained them at the same levels as in the previous quarter. Lehman Brothers seems to have decided that the prospect for German shares is better than it is for American ones. Its allocation for American equities dropped by seven percentage points, to 45% of its equity holdings; while its German share portfolio increased by six percentage points, to 11%. Lehman's share allocation to America has dropped, even as its overall equity holdings have increased.
Daiwa and Standard Life are the other two that have cut back on American equities. But Credit Suisse continues to be a cheerleader for American shares. Following its ten percentage-point increase in the third quarter, the Swiss firm increased its exposure to American equities once again in the fourth quarter. Commerz International appears to share Credit Suisse's bullish outlook: its American equity holdings have increased by four percentage points, to 490. Julius Baer is extremely bullish on American equities, with 60% of its equity funds parked there. But the average American equity holdings, among our institutional investors dropped by a percentage point in the fourth quarter.
British equities seem to have become attractive—all our investors have increased their allocations. Credit Suisse, which in the third quarter cut its investment in British shares, appears to have changed its mind. It has increased its allocation by four percentage points, taking the total to 9%. On the other hand, Japanese shares have been given the thumbs-down: all our investors save Julius Baer (unchanged) and Credit Suisse (slightly up) have moved funds out of Japanese equities.
It is a relatively similar story for Japanese bonds, where everybody apart from Commerz International has either dropped their yen-denominated bond holdings, or kept them unchanged. Robeco Group seems decidedly bearish, for it has sharply, cut its allocation, from 24% to 15%. Lehman Brothers, appears to have got the timing right, by raising its allocation of dollar-denominated bonds in the fourth quarter. Its increase was followed by the Fed interest-rate cut on January 3rd. Will Lehman's bearish timing prove right for American shares, too?
Lehman Brothers______.
A.has increased its equity and bond allocation in America
B.pays less attention to the equity holdings because of the American economy's slowdown
C.is pessimistic about the American prospect and cautious about its allocation
D.is as bearish as other institutional investors
The decline in American manufacturing is a common refrain, particularly from Donald Trump. "Wedon&39;t make anything anymore," he told Fox News, while defending his own made-in-Mexicoclothing line.
Without question, manufacturing has taken a significant hit during recent decades, and further tradedeals raise questions about whether new shocks could hit manufacturing.
But there is also a different way to look at the data.
Across the country, factory owners are now grappling with a new challenge: instead of having toomany workers, they may end up with too few. Despite trade competition and outsourcing, Americanmanufacturing still needs to replace tens of thousands of retiring boomers every years. Millennialsmay not be that interested in taking their place, other industries are recruiting them with similar orbetter pay.
For factory owners, it all adds up to stiff competition for workers-and upward pressure on wages. "They&39;re harder to find and they have job offers," says Jay Dunwell, president of Wolverine CoilSpring, a family-owned firm, "They may be coming [into the workforce], but they&39;ve been pluckedby other industries that are also doing an well as manufacturing," Mr. Dunwell has begun bringinghigh school juniors to the factory so they can get exposed to its culture.
At RoMan Manufacturing, a maker of electrical transformers and welding equipment that his fathercofounded in 1980, Robert Roth keep a close eye on the age of his nearly 200 workers, five areretiring this year. Mr. Roth has three community-college students enrolled in a work-placementprogram, with a starting wage of $13 an hour that rises to $17 after two years.
At a worktable inside the transformer plant, young Jason Stenquist looks flustered by the coppercoils he&39;s trying to assemble and the arrival of two visitors. It&39;s his first week on the job. Askedabout his choice of career, he says at high school he considered medical school before switching toelectrical engineering. "I love working with tools. I love creating." he says.
But to win over these young workers, manufacturers have to clear another major hurdle: parents,who lived through the worst US economic downturn since the Great Depression, telling them toavoid the factory. Millennials "remember their father and mother both were laid off. They blame iton the manufacturing recession," says Birgit Klohs, chief executive of The Right Place, a businessdevelopment agency for western Michigan.
These concerns aren&39;t misplaced: Employment in manufacturing has fallen from 17 million in 1970to 12 million in 2013. When the recovery began, worker shortages first appeared in the high-skilledtrades. Now shortages are appearing at the mid-skill levels. "
The gap is between the jobs that take to skills and those that require a lot of skill," says Rob Spohr,a business professor at Montcalm Community College. "There&39;re enough people to fill the jobs atMcDonalds and other places where you don&39;t need to have much skill. It&39;s that gap in between, andthat&39;s where the problem is."
Julie Parks of Grand Rapids Community points to another key to luring Millennials intomanufacturing: a work/life balance. While their parents were content to work long hours, youngpeople value flexibility. "Overtime is not attractive to this generation. They really want to live theirlives," she says.
A、says that he switched to electrical engineering because he loves working with tools。
B、 points out that there are enough people to fill thejobs that don ’t need much skill 。
C、points out that the US doesn’t manu facture anything anymore。
D、believes that it is important to keep a close eye on the age of his workers。
[E] says that for factory owners,workers are harder to find because of stiff competition。
[F] points out that a work/life balance can attract young people into manufacturing。
[G] says that the manufacturing recession is to15 blame for the lay-off the young people’s parents 。
41.Jay Deuwell______________
42.Jason Stenquist______________
43.Birgit Klohs______________
44.Rob Spohr______________
45.Julie Parks______________
41__________
42
43
44
45